Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran undergoes a regime change at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

“Regime change” is defined as the removal or collapse of the existing Islamic Republic governing structure, resulting in a new governing authority that is not operating under the current constitutional framework.

A qualifying regime change includes, but is not limited to:

- The overthrow or dissolution of the Islamic Republic

- The establishment of a new government following revolution, coup, or externally imposed transition

- The formal abolition or replacement of the office of Supreme Leader and associated governing institutions

Leadership changes within the existing system (e.g., elections, succession under the current constitution, cabinet reshuffles) do not qualify.

Loss of control over a majority of Iranian territory by the current regime qualifies, provided the regime is no longer exercising effective governing authority over that territory.

Declarations, opposition claims, protests, or temporary unrest do not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying transition or loss of governing authority as defined