Technology
AGI before 2028?
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any AI company is explicitly recognized as having achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by at least one qualifying third-party institution after the initiation of this market and before January 1, 2028, 00:00 PST.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recognition must:
Explicitly state that the company has achieved AGI (not “near-AGI,” “AGI-like,” or similar terms), and originate from at least one of the following sources:
• A national government or government agency
• A widely recognized academic or scientific body
• A widely recognized international standards organization
• A consensus of reporting from reputable international news outlets explicitly citing independent confirmation
Company self-announcements alone are insufficient.
If no qualifying recognition occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No.”
Source
• Official government or regulatory communications
• Publications or statements from recognized academic or scientific institutions
• Statements from international standards organizations
• Consensus of credible reports from reputable international news outlets